2020

Geldzug: WILL THE US DOLLAR BECOME ANOTHER CASUALTY OF COVID-19?

22 July 2020 The economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic in the US are expected to trigger a fall in the US dollar against major global currencies over the next four years. By 2024 the Australian dollar could rise as high as $0.84 (US 84 cents) The fall in the US dollar (USD) will be probably be associated with rising inflation in the US, from the present level of less than 2% to as high as 5%. This does not mean there will be worldwide inflation – other countries will be able to decide how much inflation they allow in [...]

2020-07-23T14:26:15+00:00July 23rd, 2020|

Geldzug: WILL COVID-19 CRIPPLE THE 4 BANKS?

18 June 2020 Bank profits have been falling since 2015, but the latest half-year was particularly dismal. Loan growth was weak even before COVID-19 arrived on the scene, and the banks were already paying hefty remediation charges for their crimes against their clients. Are the COVID-19 loan impairment charges going to be the straw that breaks the camel’s back... [read more]

2020-06-19T13:25:01+00:00June 19th, 2020|

Geldzug: HOTWIRING THE CHINESE ECONOMY

9 June 2020 The Chinese economy has stalled. The manufacturing PMI for May was an anaemic 50.6, a touch worse than April’s 50.8. The PMI is a dispersion index, which means that figures above 50.0 indicate expansion, and figures below 50.0 indicate contraction. So manufacturing growth is only just in positive territory. Trivium’s National Business Indicator tells the same story. In the first week of June it had reached 87.8%, compared to 85.3% a month earlier. In particular, new export orders remain very weak as the rest of the world struggles with COVID-19... [read more]

2020-06-08T13:50:28+00:00June 8th, 2020|

Geldzug: WARREN BUFFETT IS NOT BUYING RIGHT NOW

5 May 2020 Warren Buffett provided a couple of surprises at Saturday’s annual meeting of Berkshire Hathaway. First, he admitted that he had made a mistake in owning airline shares, because the industry was unlikely to bounce back quickly, so he sold out of all four big US airlines in April... [read more]

2020-05-04T16:47:11+00:00May 4th, 2020|

Geldzug: CHINA IS RECOVERING

1 May 2020 China is recovering, not only from COVID-19, but also from the GDP collapse caused by its lockdown. We know this because the central government has begun to relax several key restrictions on travel and spending. First, China’s children are being allowed to go back to school. All provinces are phasing in the resumption of regular classes over the next six weeks. In the land of the one-child policy, the return to school is psychologically very important. Even though COVID-19 very rarely kills young people, no Chinese government wants to be responsible for any child mortality. Remember the [...]

2020-05-01T20:26:08+00:00May 1st, 2020|

Geldzug: OKLAHOMA – WHERE OIL FUTURES GO TO DIE

21 April 2020 The day oil died was Monday the 20th of April 2020 - for the first time in history the price of a novated futures contract CL00 for Crude Oil WTI went negative (“CLK20” ticker on the CME for May 2020). It got buried -$37.63 below ground, final resting place Cushing, Oklahoma. Speculators holding those futures and retail investors holding the ETF “USO” will have, in market parlance, been “carted out” on the day. Whilst the next roll month is still trading in positive territory (at time of writing!) the issues that caused the May contract to hit [...]

2020-05-01T20:25:50+00:00April 22nd, 2020|

Geldzug: CHINA STOPPED COVID-19 BY STOPPING ITS ECONOMY… …BUT CAN IT RESTART ITS ECONOMY WITHOUT RESTARTING COVID-19?

23 March 2020 Chinese authorities have told the world that COVID-19 has been contained inside China. Rules about isolation are being loosened – even in Wuhan – as the number of new cases diminishes. The number of cases outside the core areas around Wuhan remain small, because the policies of quarantines and draconian travel restrictions have succeeded in preventing new cases in the rest of China. Big cities like Shanghai and Hong Kong have set excellent examples of how to handle a pandemic, because their leaders were smart enough to listen to the experts and to act decisively very early [...]

2020-03-24T11:56:37+00:00March 24th, 2020|

AUSTRALIAN MARKETS THE FEBRUARY 2020 REPORTING SEASON

25 March 2020 Twice a year we summarise the half-year and full-year results of the companies in the ALCE portfolio. The impact of the COVID-19 epidemic has overshadowed the results which were released in February 2020, because recessions are all but inevitable in Australia, the US, and Europe. For the companies reporting below, the impact of COVID-19 will not force radical changes in their business models; in other sectors such as airlines, hotels, cruise lines, and oil and gas exploration and production, many companies will not survive. For the companies in the ALCE portfolio, it is their operational performance which [...]

2020-03-24T11:39:08+00:00March 24th, 2020|

Arminius Capital hedge fund “ALPS” generates positive Chinese coronavirus returns

*LATEST* Arminius Capital hedge fund “ALPS” generates positive Chinese coronavirus returns The Arminius Capital ALPS Fund returned +1.11% for February 2020, building on its +1.38% of January. All major markets fell in February 2020: S&P500 -8.41%, Eurostoxx 600 -8.54%, NIKKEI -8.89%. To the end of February, the Arminius Capital ALPS Fund has returned +2.51% YTD 2020. (YTD 2020: S&P500 -8.56%, Eurostoxx 600 -9.66%, NIKKEI -10.63%). Although we are only 12 days into March, most global markets have suffered terribly, ending the 11 year bull market in equities. Both energy commodities and global equities have commenced their march into a bear [...]

2020-03-13T08:06:41+00:00March 13th, 2020|
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