15 November 2020

The Bank of Japan’s regular Financial Stability Report helps Arminius update our investment view on Japan. Because the country has suffered very few coronavirus deaths, the Japanese economy will recover very quickly from the lockdowns in the first half of this year. Consensus forecasts are for GDP to fall by -5% in 2020, but to rebound with +3% growth in 2021. Most importantly, the average Japanese company carries very little debt – many have a net cash position. Corporate Japan’s leverage to the East Asian economies will cause a sharp improvement in profits. Therefore we recommend maintaining a high exposure to the Japanese share market… [read more]

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