Monthly Archives: October 2018

Geldzug: FROM WEAK OWNERS TO STRONG OWNERS – ASSETS IN A BEAR MARKET

31 October 2018 Through 2018, many of our investors may well have become bored listening to our endless repetitions of the warning that a market correction was “just around the corner”. In October, the correction arrived in all major markets: the US S&P500 price index has fallen by -8.8% so far this month, the Australian S&P/ASX200 by -8.7%, the Japanese Nikkei 225 by -11.3%, and the European Stoxx 600 by -8.2%. (The Chinese Shenzhen A dropped -10.3%, but it has been falling all year and is now down by -31.9% since January.) By the third week in October, all major [...]

2018-10-29T23:00:49+00:00October 29th, 2018|

Geldzug: WHEN THE BEAR TRIPS, HOW HARD DOES IT FALL?

31 October 2018 Investors will remember that we have been nagging them about the coming correction. Now that it’s here, the big question is how bad will it be. History is a good guide because, as Warren Buffett has pointed out, Mr Market keeps making the same mistakes, swinging from over-optimism to extreme pessimism and back again. The main driver of the US share market since the GFC has been the technology sector, headed by stocks such as Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Google (aka Alphabet)... [read more]

2018-10-29T22:45:31+00:00October 29th, 2018|

Geldzug: WELCOME TO THE YEAR OF THE PIG… AND AFRICAN PIG FEVER

25 October 2018 2019 is the Year of the Pig. In the Chinese zodiac, the pig is regarded as peaceful and generous, but the Chinese government already has a serious problem with pigs. In addition to fighting a trade war and trying to deflate a credit bubble, it now has to deal with an outbreak of African Swine Fever. Cases of African Swine Fever (‘ASF’) were reported in China’s north-east in early August, and authorities responded by disinfecting farms, imposing quarantines, culling over 200,000 infected pigs, and restricting long-distance transport of all pigs. Their measures have been unsuccessful... [read more]

2018-10-30T22:34:58+00:00October 25th, 2018|

Geldzug: THE NEXT BEAR MARKET HAS JUST BEGUN

10 October 2018 For the last six months we have been warning our investors that the end was nigh for the US bull market which has appreciated by a colossal +423% for the S&P500 TR index from 6 March 2009 to 21 September 2018. Arminius Capital ALPS fund investors have benefitted from this since the fund’s inception in 2014, until we became very concerned at the end of the first quarter 2018 and began to materially add to (increasingly expensive) hedges. The recent rises in US 10 year bond yields and falls in global equities have signalled that the long [...]

2018-10-28T23:54:37+00:00October 10th, 2018|