Geldzug – FUND MANAGER COMMENTARY – January Junkyard Dogs

16 February 2023

January looked like a great start to 2023, after the losses of 2022. The S&P/ASX200 index was up 6.2% for the month, similar to the 6.3% rise in the US S&P500 index. Share markets in Europe, China and Latin America were even stronger.

But appearances can be deceptive. The January rally was built on hope, not facts. Investors were betting that the Fed would stop raising interest rates and the battered tech sector would recover. For example, Tesla gained 40%, Bitcoin jumped 38%, and even the joke Dogecoin rose 32%… [read more]

Geldzug – FUND MANAGER COMMENTARY – Bears on Cocaine

December 20, 2022

ALPS is in positive territory year to date to November (+14.71%), in stark contrast with global equities (-15.81%) and bonds (-14.58%).  Global Macro funds have shone this year as they capitalised on a semblance of normality returning to bond markets with the Fed leading the charge of recalibrating interest rates after keeping the world high on low rates since 2009. With the dual effort of reducing liquidity in the system through quantitative tightening while beginning a rates ascent back to a natural level of 4-5%, macro funds have survived the wanton wealth destruction of 2022 far better than both active & passive equity and bond funds… [read more]

Geldzug – FUND MANAGER COMMENTARY – Bond vigilantes & drunk chickens

November 30, 2022

Our global macro hedge fund is in positive territory year to date (+18.99%), in stark contrast with global equities (-21.17%) and bonds (-17.51%). Our returns have been achieved in spite of the Bank of England during October effectively having to bail out the majority of the UK pension fund industry, which was by far and large the most entertaining event of last month… [read more]

Radio Interview – with Steve Austin

11 Oct, 2022

Marcel with Steve Austin on ABC radio discussing why governments and central banks have caused the current inflationary environment, in light of the Federal Treasurer’s comments today of the necessity of “blunt and brutal” interest rate rises in the months ahead and his pending trip to the IMF in Washington… [see podcast]


October 15, 2022

Our global macro hedge fund is in positive territory year to date (+16.06%), in stark contrast with global equities (-26.40%) and bonds (-16.25%). The investment community’s venerable “60/40 Portfolio” continues to present as the 2022 Ironman Race “DNF” competitor. Commodities remain the winning play for 2022 – and no, Putin is not solely responsible for this... [read more]


5 September 2022

26 August was the day when investors realized that the Fed has no intention of saving the US share market. Governors of the Federal Reserve had been warning that interest rate rises would be bigger and faster than the market was expecting, but this did not sink in until Fed Chairman Jay Powell said so in very blunt language and sent markets imploding in August. We note with some irony that one of Imperator Augustus’ (63 BC – 14 AD) last great administrative acts was to establish a fire brigade in Rome… [read more]


28 May 2021

  • The ANZ, NAB and WBC results for the March half-year demonstrated comfortable provisioning, strong balance sheets, improving margins, and prudent funding. What was missing was organic growth.
  • The banks’ loan write-downs in the next two years will be less than the provisions they made last year, but provision write-backs are no substitute for growth.
  • We continue to believe that, although the banks will track Australia’s post-coronavirus recovery, they will underperform the market in the longer term.

Last November we said that the big four banks were on the road to recovery, and recommended that investors hang onto the banks as a leveraged play on Australian growth in 2021. Over the last six months the banks’ share prices rose by 35% or more: now the question is, can they keep on out-performing? [read more]