Geldzug: AUSTRALIAN BANKS: WHERE’S THE GROWTH?

28 May 2021 The ANZ, NAB and WBC results for the March half-year demonstrated comfortable provisioning, strong balance sheets, improving margins, and prudent funding. What was missing was organic growth. The banks’ loan write-downs in the next two years will be less than the provisions they made last year, but provision write-backs are no substitute for growth. We continue to believe that, although the banks will track Australia’s post-coronavirus recovery, they will underperform the market in the longer term. Last November we said that the big four banks were on the road to recovery, and recommended that investors hang onto [...]

2021-06-03T17:12:22+00:00June 3rd, 2021|

Geldzug: WARNINGS FROM THE MOST SUCCESSFUL BANK CEO

26 April 2021 On several occasions Arminius has outlined the difficult competitive landscape which Australia’s big four banks have had to face since the GFC. Just recently, the most successful bank CEO of the last two decades has given us an update on the main competitive threats to the industry... [read more]

2021-04-22T19:52:03+00:00April 25th, 2021|

Arminius Capital hedge fund “ALPS” generates positive Chinese coronavirus returns

*LATEST* Arminius Capital hedge fund “ALPS” generates positive Chinese coronavirus returns The Arminius Capital ALPS Fund returned +1.11% for February 2020, building on its +1.38% of January. All major markets fell in February 2020: S&P500 -8.41%, Eurostoxx 600 -8.54%, NIKKEI -8.89%. To the end of February, the Arminius Capital ALPS Fund has returned +2.51% YTD 2020. (YTD 2020: S&P500 -8.56%, Eurostoxx 600 -9.66%, NIKKEI -10.63%). Although we are only 12 days into March, most global markets have suffered terribly, ending the 11 year bull market in equities. Both energy commodities and global equities have commenced their march into a bear [...]

2020-03-13T08:06:41+00:00March 13th, 2020|

Geldzug: THREE SEISMIC TREMORS IN SEPTEMBER

1 October 2019 The financial world was shaken by three seismic tremors during September 2019, but most people only noticed one of them. The First Seismic Tremor The one that everyone noticed was the drone attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil processing plant at Abqaiq on 14 September. The Yemen-based rebels who claimed responsibility have launched more than one hundred drone attacks in the last two years, on Saudi oil facilities such as oilfields, pipelines, and pumping stations, as well as military bases, airports, and other infrastructure... [read more]

2019-10-03T23:02:33+00:00October 3rd, 2019|

Geldzug: COMMONWEALTH BANK’S FY19 RESULT: TRENCH WARFARE AHEAD

12 August 2019 The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (“CBA”) is Australia’s largest bank at $140.6 billion, and the most expensive of the Big Four, in terms of P/E, dividend yield, and price to book ratio. As such, its disappointing result for the year ended 30 June 2019 does not augur well for the other three big banks (who all have September year ends)... [read more]

2019-08-19T23:51:03+00:00August 19th, 2019|

Geldzug: FACEBOOK’S LIBRA: STAR SIGN OR TAMPON?

28 June 2019 Libra is planned to be a global cryptocurrency suitable for international transfers. Its value will be stable because it is based on a Reserve of high quality assets. There are many unanswered questions about Libra’s regulatory status, particularly about its compliance with anti money laundering rules. It will not be accepted in developed countries until it satisfies each country’s regulator. Libra can productively target remittances, which are an important segment of the global money transfer market. Remittances from rich countries to middle income and poor countries totalled USD $529 billion in 2018. The impact on Western banks [...]

2019-07-01T23:44:11+00:00June 28th, 2019|
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