Geldzug: CRACKDOWNS IN CHINA: PART I

21 September 2021 The first part in a series of articles on the recent events in China. No Arminius Capital fund has any direct exposure to Chinese equities. This is a deliberate policy: we can read the Chinese-language financial accounts of Chinese companies, so we know that these contain some of the most imaginative fiction outside the bestseller lists. But we want our investors to understand what is currently happening in the world’s second-largest economy... [read more]

2021-09-22T01:45:05+00:00September 22nd, 2021|

Geldzug: THE NEXT CORRECTION

10 September 2021 For the last two months Arminius has been warning investors that world equity markets are at risk of a correction of up to 15%. We believe that share prices have baked in too much optimism about the global economic recovery, which means that any serious setback could trigger a sharp fall... [read more]

2021-09-10T01:23:55+00:00September 10th, 2021|

Geldzug: THE AUGUST 2021 AUSTRALIAN REPORTING SEASON

2 September 2021 Twice a year we summarise the half-year and full-year results of the companies in the Arminius Capital ALCE portfolio https://arminiuscapital.com.au/funds/. Most of our companies reported strong earnings recoveries in the June 2021 half-year, and it has also been a record season for dividend payouts and share buybacks. Despite the recent surge in COVID-19 lockdowns, company boards – who by definition are in possession of inside information – are broadly positive about the outlook for FY2022... [read more]

2021-09-02T17:43:54+00:00September 2nd, 2021|

Geldzug: WHAT ARE CENTRAL BANK DIGITAL CURRENCIES?

18 June 2021 Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) are already operating in the Bahamas and being trialled in China. They will be introduced by many countries over the next five years. CBDCs enjoy the crucial advantage of total security, because a central bank can’t go broke. But, in order to achieve broad acceptance, CBDCs also need to be cheaper or faster or more efficient or more private or more convenient than the alternatives. CBDCs differ from other cashless payment instruments such as credit transfers, direct debit, stablecoins, or cryptocurrencies, because they are “government money”, being direct liabilities of the central [...]

2021-06-18T17:17:18+00:00June 18th, 2021|

Geldzug: INFLATION PREPARATION – OLD IS NEW AGAIN

23 April 2021 Back when coins were originally made out of an alloy of silver and gold it was uncommon but not impossible to debase one’s currency. The death penalty as a consequence of currency debasement seemed to inhibit the practice. The Lydian Empire in 700 BC (before they fell to the Persians) lays claim to inventing “coinage”. Once the use of coins as a medium of exchange became commonplace, the Greeks were known to debase their currency from time to time... [read more]

2021-04-22T18:55:04+00:00April 22nd, 2021|

Geldzug: THE AUSTRALIAN FEBRUARY 2021 REPORTING SEASON

28 February 2021 Twice a year we summarise the half-year and full-year results of the companies in the ALCE portfolio. Most of the companies in the portfolio reported strong earnings recoveries in the December half-year, and dividend payouts were higher than our forecasts... [read more]

2021-03-01T18:02:37+00:00March 1st, 2021|

Geldzug: CHINA’S 14th FIVE YEAR PLAN

25 February 2021 China’s top leaders have set out their top priorities for 2021 to 2025: achieving self-reliance in science and technology, and “dual circulation”. Self-reliance in science and technology means accelerating the development of vital high-tech industries such as semiconductors to ensure that China can develop regardless of US “threats”. Dual circulation means encouraging production for domestic markets as well as for export markets, and upgrading China’s internal logistics systems so as to build a unified national market. China is also committed to restructuring the energy sector and energy-intensive industries so as to meet the target of peak carbon [...]

2021-03-01T16:32:09+00:00March 1st, 2021|

Geldzug: CHINA IS NOT GOING TO SAVE THE WORLD THIS TIME

4 February 2021 In November 2008 a panicked Chinese government launched a stimulus package equivalent to 12% of then GDP. The package propelled China out of the GFC, but it created more problems than it solved, e.g.: A tenfold increase in corruption Useless or non-economic projects: “bridges to nowhere” A surge in banks’ bad loans A sharp increase in the ratio of debt to GDP Unsafe buildings, and highways that collapsed

2021-02-04T15:40:14+00:00February 4th, 2021|

Geldzug: LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL – BUT WE’RE STILL IN THE TUNNEL

20 January 2021 Coronavirus vaccines will help us return to normal, but there will be risks, obstacles, and delays through 2021. 2021 will bring a W-shaped recovery in the economy and the share market: two steps forward, one step back. The Australian dollar is headed toward USD 90c much faster than we expected. After the grim events of 2020, the November news of three coronavirus vaccines set off a surge of investor optimism about the future... [read more]

2021-01-20T15:15:18+00:00January 20th, 2021|
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