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So far Arminius has created 78 blog entries.

Geldzug: AUSTRALIAN BIG BANKS ARE BACK!

17 November 2021 The three banks with September financial years – ANZ, NAB and Westpac – are almost back to normal. Cash profits and return on equity are still below FY19 levels, but it is clear that the COVID-19 crisis has not left any scars on the banking system. Most importantly, the banks’ capital positions are once again “unquestionably strong”: an average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of 12.7%, up from 11.4% in FY20, means that all the banks can afford share buybacks... [read more]

2021-11-18T17:10:25+00:00November 18th, 2021|

Geldzug: JAPAN EDGES CLOSER TO CONFRONTING CHINA

5 November 2021 A change of Prime Minister usually doesn’t result in much change in Japanese policies, because almost all Prime Ministers are created by the Liberal Democratic Party machine, which pursues power rather than policies. But the new PM, the 64-year-old Kishida Fumio, has made some Cabinet appointments which might lead to major changes. Of course, all the top Cabinet posts went to long-serving party stalwarts in order to pay Kishida’s debts to the faction bosses who supported him, but he also added several of the LDP’s rising stars to his Cabinet... [read more]

2021-11-05T14:05:42+00:00November 5th, 2021|

Geldzug: CRACKDOWNS IN CHINA: SEASON 1, EPISODE 2

26 October 2021 The breakneck expansion of China’s tech giants was built on the same philosophy as America’s tech giants – “move fast and break things.” That is, they have diversified into new areas of business without paying much attention to the regulatory environment, figuring that such minor details can be fixed up later... [read more]

2021-11-05T12:56:59+00:00October 26th, 2021|

Geldzug: GREEN SWANS

20 October 2021 The world’s central bankers have been worrying about green swans lately. The Bank for International Settlements (aka BIS), which is the central bankers’ central bank, even held a “Green Swan” conference. What does this mean for Australia’s banks... [read more]

2021-10-20T09:00:49+00:00October 20th, 2021|

Geldzug: THE WINTER OF DISCONTENT

12 October 2021 The winter of 1978-1979 was disastrous for the UK economy. A combination of freezing weather, rising inflation, union wage demands, and public and private sector strikes caused fuel shortages, food shortages, and essential services failures. The press christened the period “the winter of discontent”, borrowed from the first line of Shakespeare’s Richard III. Not surprisingly, Margaret Thatcher won the May 1979 election... [read more]

2021-10-12T12:49:45+00:00October 12th, 2021|

Geldzug: CRACKDOWNS IN CHINA: SEASON 1, EPISODE 1

21 September 2021 The first part in a series of articles on the recent events in China. No Arminius Capital fund has any direct exposure to Chinese equities. This is a deliberate policy: we can read the Chinese-language financial accounts of Chinese companies, so we know that these contain some of the most imaginative fiction outside the bestseller lists. But we want our investors to understand what is currently happening in the world’s second-largest economy... [read more]

2021-10-26T19:43:41+00:00September 22nd, 2021|

Geldzug: THE NEXT CORRECTION

10 September 2021 For the last two months Arminius has been warning investors that world equity markets are at risk of a correction of up to 15%. We believe that share prices have baked in too much optimism about the global economic recovery, which means that any serious setback could trigger a sharp fall... [read more]

2021-09-10T01:23:55+00:00September 10th, 2021|

Geldzug: THE AUGUST 2021 AUSTRALIAN REPORTING SEASON

2 September 2021 Twice a year we summarise the half-year and full-year results of the companies in the Arminius Capital ALCE portfolio https://arminiuscapital.com.au/funds/. Most of our companies reported strong earnings recoveries in the June 2021 half-year, and it has also been a record season for dividend payouts and share buybacks. Despite the recent surge in COVID-19 lockdowns, company boards – who by definition are in possession of inside information – are broadly positive about the outlook for FY2022... [read more]

2021-09-02T17:43:54+00:00September 2nd, 2021|

Geldzug: WHAT ARE CENTRAL BANK DIGITAL CURRENCIES?

18 June 2021 Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) are already operating in the Bahamas and being trialled in China. They will be introduced by many countries over the next five years. CBDCs enjoy the crucial advantage of total security, because a central bank can’t go broke. But, in order to achieve broad acceptance, CBDCs also need to be cheaper or faster or more efficient or more private or more convenient than the alternatives. CBDCs differ from other cashless payment instruments such as credit transfers, direct debit, stablecoins, or cryptocurrencies, because they are “government money”, being direct liabilities of the central [...]

2021-06-18T17:17:18+00:00June 18th, 2021|

Geldzug: AUSTRALIAN BANKS: WHERE’S THE GROWTH?

28 May 2021 The ANZ, NAB and WBC results for the March half-year demonstrated comfortable provisioning, strong balance sheets, improving margins, and prudent funding. What was missing was organic growth. The banks’ loan write-downs in the next two years will be less than the provisions they made last year, but provision write-backs are no substitute for growth. We continue to believe that, although the banks will track Australia’s post-coronavirus recovery, they will underperform the market in the longer term. Last November we said that the big four banks were on the road to recovery, and recommended that investors hang onto [...]

2021-06-03T17:12:22+00:00June 3rd, 2021|
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