Is Europe still an attractive investment market given the potential burden of Greek debt
11 February 2015
Geld Zug: INVESTMENT ARITHMETIC FOR 2015: 2 + 2 = 4
INVESTMENT ARITHMETIC FOR 2015: 2 + 2 = 4 In 2014 my Australian Equities mandate returned 15.1%, but the S&P/ASX200 Index managed only 5.6%. Share prices in the mining sector dropped as iron ore and coal prices fell to levels not seen since 2009. Repeated downgrades to Chinese GDP growth forecasts added to the negative sentiment. In the second half of the year oil prices halved, causing share prices in the energy sector to join the miners in their slide. Things were worse in Australia than overseas: the US S&P 500 index returned 13.6% in CY14, and although European share [...]
Geld Zug: THE PURPOSE OF ECONOMIC FORECASTING IS TO MAKE ASTROLOGERS LOOK GOOD
THE PURPOSE OF ECONOMIC FORECASTING IS TO MAKE ASTROLOGERS LOOK GOOD 2014 was a year that confounded forecasters. We admit our own mistakes first: we were worried about a market correction of 10%-plus, and it just didn’t happen. As a result our modest investment in derivative protection turned out to be unnecessary, but my equity fund has nonetheless recorded a return of more than 14% for CY2014, significantly above the S&P/ASX200 accumulation return of 5.68%. The record of economic forecasters demonstrates very clearly why we don’t use economic forecasts as inputs. The USA is the world’s largest economy: its 2013 [...]