15 November 2020 The Bank of Japan’s regular Financial Stability Report helps Arminius update our investment view on Japan. Because the country has suffered very few coronavirus deaths, the Japanese economy will recover very quickly from the lockdowns in the first half of this year. Consensus forecasts are for GDP to fall by -5% in 2020, but to rebound with [...]
By Arminius|2020-11-23T15:02:21+00:00November 23rd, 2020|Categories: 2020, Geld Zug|Comments Off on Geldzug: STAYING OVERWEIGHT JAPAN
20 October 2020 The US share market is the biggest in the world, accounting for 60% of total market capitalization. (The Australian share market is only 2%.) Therefore, when investors in the US are getting scared, the rest of the world sits up and pays attention. The chart below shows how investors have become increasingly worried about the outcome of [...]
By Arminius|2020-10-21T20:18:58+00:00October 21st, 2020|Categories: 2020, Geld Zug|Comments Off on Geldzug: THE PRESIDENTIAL VOLATILITY KINK
30 September 2020 China is a major factor in Australia’s economic recovery because China buys more than a third of our exports. This is why global investors like to use the Australian dollar as a proxy for the Chinese economy – if China does well, Australia will benefit, so our dollar will rise (provided that the Australian government does not [...]
By Arminius|2020-09-29T20:26:38+00:00September 29th, 2020|Categories: 2020, Geld Zug|Comments Off on Geldzug: IF CHINA REBOUNDS, AUSTRALIA GETS AN ASSIST
15 September 2020 Twice a year we summarise the half-year and full-year results of the companies in the ALCE portfolio. Although the COVID-19 pandemic has affected some of the results for the June 2020 half year, the companies in the portfolio remain strong. Several – e.g. APA, Amcor, BWP, Spark NZ, Steadfast, and Waypoint – have not been materially affected [...]
By Arminius|2020-09-17T15:21:28+00:00September 17th, 2020|Categories: 2020, Geld Zug|Comments Off on Geldzug: AUSTRALIAN MARKETS – THE AUGUST 2020 REPORTING SEASON
22 July 2020 The economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic in the US are expected to trigger a fall in the US dollar against major global currencies over the next four years. By 2024 the Australian dollar could rise as high as $0.84 (US 84 cents) The fall in the US dollar (USD) will be probably be associated with rising [...]
By Arminius|2020-07-23T14:26:15+00:00July 23rd, 2020|Categories: 2020, Geld Zug|Comments Off on Geldzug: WILL THE US DOLLAR BECOME ANOTHER CASUALTY OF COVID-19?
18 June 2020 Bank profits have been falling since 2015, but the latest half-year was particularly dismal. Loan growth was weak even before COVID-19 arrived on the scene, and the banks were already paying hefty remediation charges for their crimes against their clients. Are the COVID-19 loan impairment charges going to be the straw that breaks the camel’s back... [read [...]
By Arminius|2020-06-19T13:25:01+00:00June 19th, 2020|Categories: 2020, Geld Zug|Comments Off on Geldzug: WILL COVID-19 CRIPPLE THE 4 BANKS?