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News2017-12-17T01:36:45+00:00

Geldzug: LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL – BUT WE’RE STILL IN THE TUNNEL

20 January 2021 Coronavirus vaccines will help us return to normal, but there will be risks, obstacles, and delays through 2021. 2021 will bring a W-shaped recovery in the economy and the share market: two steps forward, one step back. The Australian dollar is headed toward USD 90c much faster than we expected. After the grim events of 2020, the [...]

By |January 20th, 2021|Categories: 2021, Geld Zug|Comments Off on Geldzug: LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL – BUT WE’RE STILL IN THE TUNNEL

Geldzug: PRESIDENT BIDEN AND THE SHARE MARKET

18 December 2020 History indicates that the US share markets are kinder to Democratic Presidents than under Republican Presidents. The most important thing is to stay invested, because the share market rises under almost every President. Although the Biden Administration will probably have to deal with a hostile Senate, it can still accomplish many of its policy objectives by executive [...]

By |December 17th, 2020|Categories: 2020, Geld Zug|Comments Off on Geldzug: PRESIDENT BIDEN AND THE SHARE MARKET

Geldzug: AUSTRALIA’S BANKS ARE ON THE ROAD TO RECOVERY

13 November 2020 The ANZ, NAB and WBC results for the September half-year suggest that their bad loan problems will be smaller than expected, because loan deferrals are falling faster than feared. NAB had the best underlying result. Banking sector profits are likely to bottom in FY21, then recover at 10% to 15% pa for the next two years, taking [...]

By |November 23rd, 2020|Categories: 2020, Geld Zug|Comments Off on Geldzug: AUSTRALIA’S BANKS ARE ON THE ROAD TO RECOVERY

Geldzug: STAYING OVERWEIGHT JAPAN

15 November 2020 The Bank of Japan’s regular Financial Stability Report helps Arminius update our investment view on Japan. Because the country has suffered very few coronavirus deaths, the Japanese economy will recover very quickly from the lockdowns in the first half of this year. Consensus forecasts are for GDP to fall by -5% in 2020, but to rebound with [...]

By |November 23rd, 2020|Categories: 2020, Geld Zug|Comments Off on Geldzug: STAYING OVERWEIGHT JAPAN

Geldzug: THE PRESIDENTIAL VOLATILITY KINK

20 October 2020 The US share market is the biggest in the world, accounting for 60% of total market capitalization. (The Australian share market is only 2%.) Therefore, when investors in the US are getting scared, the rest of the world sits up and pays attention. The chart below shows how investors have become increasingly worried about the outcome of [...]

By |October 21st, 2020|Categories: 2020, Geld Zug|Comments Off on Geldzug: THE PRESIDENTIAL VOLATILITY KINK

Geldzug: IF CHINA REBOUNDS, AUSTRALIA GETS AN ASSIST

30 September 2020 China is a major factor in Australia’s economic recovery because China buys more than a third of our exports. This is why global investors like to use the Australian dollar as a proxy for the Chinese economy – if China does well, Australia will benefit, so our dollar will rise (provided that the Australian government does not [...]

By |September 29th, 2020|Categories: 2020, Geld Zug|Comments Off on Geldzug: IF CHINA REBOUNDS, AUSTRALIA GETS AN ASSIST

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