24 Mar, 2017
In 2016 Australian coal and iron ore miners enjoyed a jump in commodity prices thanks to capacity closures mandated by the Chinese government. Prices have since pulled back from their peaks, and companies such as BHP and Fortescue have warned that the current level of prices cannot be sustained. We provide an overview of why the Chinese government has been shutting down coal-fired power stations, and explain why commodity prices will fall back again… [read more]
22 Mar, 2017
With the US and Australian stock markets heading lower this week, should we be worried? Marcel shares his outlook on the American and Australian stock markets with Peter Switzer
8 Mar, 2017
Marcel discusses the factors other than Trump that are effecting the market
23 Feb, 2017
Marcel joins Peter Switzer to discuss the stock market rally run so far, and whether we should expect a pullback sooner rather than later
8 Feb, 2017
Banks and resources are highly favoured, but how long will it last? Marcel von Pfyffer joins Switzer TV
25 Jan, 2017
Marcel von Pfyffer discusses with Peter Switzer what we can expect for the global economy in the next few months, and how investors can prepare for it.
31 Jan, 2017
According to the traditional Chinese calendar, on Saturday 28 January the Year of the Monkey gave way to the Year of the Rooster. Last year started badly and ended well. We think that this year will do the opposite.
A slowdown in the Chinese economy remains, as ever, the single biggest risk for the Australian economy. We have often stated that Chinese GDP growth is slowing over the long term because the structure of the Chinese economy is changing – services now outweigh manufacturing industry as a percentage of GDP, state sponsored capex is declining, and labour supply is moving from surplus to shortage… [read more]
23 Jan, 2017
After achieving GDP growth of a scientifically-precise 6.7% in each the first three quarters of 2016, China recorded 6.8% in the December quarter, making 6.7% for the calendar year. This outcome was squarely in the middle of the official target range of 6.5% to 7.0% for GDP growth under the Thirteenth Five Year Plan (covering 2016 to 2020).
There is a widely held opinion that Chinese statisticians work more magic than Harry Potter. Back in 2007, the current Premier Li Keqiang remarked that he avoided official statistics and preferred to look at underlying data such as electricity consumption and bank lending. Many researchers have also developed their own measures of the Chinese economy… [read more]
9 Jan, 2017
One of the many paradoxes of the Trump presidency is that, although he is one of the richest men ever to be elected president, he was elected by “the little guy”. The opposite of being rich is being poor. Trump was not elected by poor people on average, but by poor areas of the USA. What do we mean by saying this? …[read more]
