14 Mar, 2023
Marcel with Steve Austin on ABC radio discussing the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) failure, the circumstances and implications of this failure and what is on the horizon… [see podcast]
Geldzug – FUND MANAGER COMMENTARY – January Junkyard Dogs
16 February 2023
January looked like a great start to 2023, after the losses of 2022. The S&P/ASX200 index was up 6.2% for the month, similar to the 6.3% rise in the US S&P500 index. Share markets in Europe, China and Latin America were even stronger.
But appearances can be deceptive. The January rally was built on hope, not facts. Investors were betting that the Fed would stop raising interest rates and the battered tech sector would recover. For example, Tesla gained 40%, Bitcoin jumped 38%, and even the joke Dogecoin rose 32%… [read more]
Geldzug – FUND MANAGER COMMENTARY – 1 Million Dollars Per Hour From Commodities
Year’s End 2022
ALPS ended 2022 in positive territory (+21.67%), in stark contrast with global equities (-19.46%) and bonds (-15.13%). During the year, Arminius Capital collected two international awards for 3rd and 5th place for monthly returns in August & September from BarclayHedge. https://www.barclayhedge.com/rankings-awards/performance-awards/… [read more]
Geldzug – FUND MANAGER COMMENTARY – Bears on Cocaine
December 20, 2022
ALPS is in positive territory year to date to November (+14.71%), in stark contrast with global equities (-15.81%) and bonds (-14.58%). Global Macro funds have shone this year as they capitalised on a semblance of normality returning to bond markets with the Fed leading the charge of recalibrating interest rates after keeping the world high on low rates since 2009. With the dual effort of reducing liquidity in the system through quantitative tightening while beginning a rates ascent back to a natural level of 4-5%, macro funds have survived the wanton wealth destruction of 2022 far better than both active & passive equity and bond funds… [read more]
Geldzug – FUND MANAGER COMMENTARY – Bond vigilantes & drunk chickens
November 30, 2022
Our global macro hedge fund is in positive territory year to date (+18.99%), in stark contrast with global equities (-21.17%) and bonds (-17.51%). Our returns have been achieved in spite of the Bank of England during October effectively having to bail out the majority of the UK pension fund industry, which was by far and large the most entertaining event of last month… [read more]
Radio Interview – with Steve Austin
11 Oct, 2022
Marcel with Steve Austin on ABC radio discussing why governments and central banks have caused the current inflationary environment, in light of the Federal Treasurer’s comments today of the necessity of “blunt and brutal” interest rate rises in the months ahead and his pending trip to the IMF in Washington… [see podcast]
Geldzug – ANOTHER SEASONALLY SAD SEPTEMBER
October 15, 2022
Our global macro hedge fund is in positive territory year to date (+16.06%), in stark contrast with global equities (-26.40%) and bonds (-16.25%). The investment community’s venerable “60/40 Portfolio” continues to present as the 2022 Ironman Race “DNF” competitor. Commodities remain the winning play for 2022 – and no, Putin is not solely responsible for this... [read more]
Geldzug: WHAT JUST HAPPENED IN AUGUST?
5 September 2022
26 August was the day when investors realized that the Fed has no intention of saving the US share market. Governors of the Federal Reserve had been warning that interest rate rises would be bigger and faster than the market was expecting, but this did not sink in until Fed Chairman Jay Powell said so in very blunt language and sent markets imploding in August. We note with some irony that one of Imperator Augustus’ (63 BC – 14 AD) last great administrative acts was to establish a fire brigade in Rome… [read more]
Geldzug: SITTING ON THE MOUNTAIN, WATCHING THE TIGERS FIGHT
11 January 2022
According to the Chinese zodiac, 2022 is the Year of the Tiger. Tigers are bold, powerful and dangerous, but in Chinese astrology they are also impulsive, short-tempered, and have difficulty getting on with others. There is an old Chinese saying about “sitting on the mountain, watching the tigers fight”, which means that, when the situation is violent and confusing, it’s best to stand back and see how things work out… [read more]
Geldzug: AUSTRALIAN BIG BANKS ARE BACK!
17 November 2021
The three banks with September financial years – ANZ, NAB and Westpac – are almost back to normal. Cash profits and return on equity are still below FY19 levels, but it is clear that the COVID-19 crisis has not left any scars on the banking system. Most importantly, the banks’ capital positions are once again “unquestionably strong”: an average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of 12.7%, up from 11.4% in FY20, means that all the banks can afford share buybacks… [read more]