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News2017-12-17T01:36:45+00:00

Geldzug: ECONOMIC GROWTH AND EQUITY MARKETS

19 June 2019 It is natural to assume that a country’s share market performance is driven by its economic performance, and therefore that a country with high GDP growth will generate high equity returns. Unfortunately, completely the opposite is true. For most countries over most periods, equity returns are negatively correlated with economic growth. How could this happen? We have [...]

By |June 19th, 2019|Categories: 2019, Geld Zug|Comments Off on Geldzug: ECONOMIC GROWTH AND EQUITY MARKETS

Geldzug: BIPARTISANSHIP – AN ALBATROSS FOR CONGRESS

21 May 2019 As we watch the US and China heading enthusiastically into a full-scale trade war, it is worth taking a step back from President Trump’s daily squabbles via the Twittersphere with the rest of Planet Earth, and focusing on the policy areas where the Republicans and the Democrats do already agree. Infrastructure is one of the obvious areas. [...]

By |May 22nd, 2019|Categories: 2019, Geld Zug|Comments Off on Geldzug: BIPARTISANSHIP – AN ALBATROSS FOR CONGRESS

Geldzug: WARNING SIGNS IN THE US – GELD ZUG

12 May 2019 Since the GFC, the world’s central banks have got into the habit of publishing regular Financial Stability Reports (FSR). These documents are intended to function as an early warning system, by monitoring financial markets in order to identify risks as they appear and grow, so that the regulators can take action before the crisis actually occurs – [...]

By |May 10th, 2019|Categories: 2019, Geld Zug|Comments Off on Geldzug: WARNING SIGNS IN THE US – GELD ZUG

Geldzug: OPERA IN BEIJING – THE NATIONAL PEOPLE’S CONGRESS 2019

8 March 2019 China’s equivalent of Parliament meets in Beijing every year for a few days in March. This august body, officially called the National People’s Congress, always passes every item of legislation put in front of it by the Communist Party leadership... [read more]

By |March 8th, 2019|Categories: 2019, Geld Zug|Comments Off on Geldzug: OPERA IN BEIJING – THE NATIONAL PEOPLE’S CONGRESS 2019

Geldzug: PREPARING FOR THE CHINA CRISIS

22 February 2019 After a decade of pointing out that China was not heading for a financial crisis, we have changed our minds. Recent trends suggest that problems are building in China’s corporate bonds, small banks, and consumer loans. We think that a crisis is likely in the next two years... [read more]

By |February 28th, 2019|Categories: 2019, Geld Zug|Comments Off on Geldzug: PREPARING FOR THE CHINA CRISIS

Geldzug: YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED

21 November 2018 Here is a list of fund managers and financial regulators: Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, which manages USD$160 billion Paul Tudor Jones, successful hedge fund manager since 1980 The International Monetary Fund, which recently pointed out global debt has now reached 225% of GDP, beating the 2009 record of 213% Jean-Claude Trichet, head of the European [...]

By |November 21st, 2018|Categories: 2018, Geld Zug|Comments Off on Geldzug: YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED