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News2017-12-17T01:36:45+00:00

Geldzug: RECESSION O’CLOCK, AUSTRALIA?

4th October 2019 The biggest drivers of GDP growth in Australia are “houses and holes”, i.e. residential construction and resource exports. Residential construction is driven by factors internal to the Australian economy, whereas resource exports depend on the growth of the major global economies, particularly China. House prices and housing starts have been falling since early 2018, but there are [...]

By |October 10th, 2019|Categories: 2019, Geld Zug|Comments Off on Geldzug: RECESSION O’CLOCK, AUSTRALIA?

Geldzug: THREE SEISMIC TREMORS IN SEPTEMBER

1 October 2019 The financial world was shaken by three seismic tremors during September 2019, but most people only noticed one of them. The First Seismic Tremor The one that everyone noticed was the drone attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil processing plant at Abqaiq on 14 September. The Yemen-based rebels who claimed responsibility have launched more than one hundred drone [...]

By |October 3rd, 2019|Categories: Uncategorized|Comments Off on Geldzug: THREE SEISMIC TREMORS IN SEPTEMBER

Geldzug: COMMONWEALTH BANK’S FY19 RESULT: TRENCH WARFARE AHEAD

12 August 2019 The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (“CBA”) is Australia’s largest bank at $140.6 billion, and the most expensive of the Big Four, in terms of P/E, dividend yield, and price to book ratio. As such, its disappointing result for the year ended 30 June 2019 does not augur well for the other three big banks (who all have [...]

By |August 19th, 2019|Categories: Uncategorized|Comments Off on Geldzug: COMMONWEALTH BANK’S FY19 RESULT: TRENCH WARFARE AHEAD

Geldzug: ANOTHER TRADE WAR – THIS TIME WITHOUT THE US

6 August 2019 With all the news about the Trump Administration’s trade disputes with China, Japan, Canada, Mexico, and the EU, the ordinary investor probably hasn’t noticed one trade war which doesn’t involve the US but could have serious consequences in East Asia. On 2 August 2019 the Japanese government removed South Korea from a “whitelist” of 27 countries which [...]

By |August 5th, 2019|Categories: 2019, Geld Zug|Comments Off on Geldzug: ANOTHER TRADE WAR – THIS TIME WITHOUT THE US

Geldzug: BANK TO THE FUTURE II

24 July 2019 Countless tech visionaries have talked about the potential for “disrupting” the banking industry. Some have even started companies which competed with traditional banks. (Despite his words, Gates himself never did so.) To date, none of these companies has had much impact on the incumbent banks, who have done a far better job of disruption by shooting themselves [...]

By |July 24th, 2019|Categories: 2019, Geld Zug|Comments Off on Geldzug: BANK TO THE FUTURE II

Geldzug: FACEBOOK FACEPLANT

22 July 2019 Last month, with a great fanfare and many pious platitudes, Facebook announced its proposed global cryptocurrency, Libra. We, along with many others, expressed doubt that Libra would meet the regulatory standards which are mandatory in developed countries, particularly the anti money laundering and “know your client” rules. (See http://arminiuscapital.com.au/geld-zug-commentaries/  28 June 2019)... [read more]

By |July 19th, 2019|Categories: 2019, Geld Zug|Comments Off on Geldzug: FACEBOOK FACEPLANT