Geld Zug

Geldzug: WILL TECH DISRUPTION DESTROY YOUR SHARE PORTFOLIO?

As we investors watch famous names in retailing crumble under the relentless assault of Amazon, we start to wonder, “Which sector will be the next to be disrupted?” Then we think, “Will the companies in my share portfolio survive all these changes?”... [read more]  

2018-04-18T12:14:25+00:00January 17th, 2018|

Geldzug: A GREENER CHINA IS A SLOWER CHINA

2 Oct, 17 Anyone who has been to Beijing in winter knows how bad the air pollution is there. The same is true of many Chinese cities because, from the 1980s on, governments at all levels were focused on maximizing economic growth and job creation. The future careers of local officials were heavily determined by the GDP growth rates which they managed to achieve in the areas under their supervision... [read more]

2018-04-20T22:26:56+00:00October 2nd, 2017|

Geldzug: CHINA CRACKS DOWN ON OVERSEAS INVESTMENTS

1 Sep 17, Since 2008 the Chinese government has had an official policy called chuqu, or “going out”, which encourages Chinese companies to expand overseas by means of building new assets and acquiring existing assets. The strategy of building new assets has been mostly successful, with some exceptions: CITIC’s Sino Iron project at Cape Preston, Western Australia, for example, opened four years late, has run 200% over budget, and is still not profitable... [read more]

2018-04-20T22:27:21+00:00September 2nd, 2017|

Geldzug: THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT PLAYS SPOILSPORT

24 Aug, 17 Chinese banks and other lenders have enjoyed years of double-digit credit growth, but in March 2017 the authorities stopped the party, turned the lights on, and took away the alcohol. Abrupt changes in the leadership of the three main regulators (of banks, brokers and insurers) were followed by equally abrupt changes in regulatory style. Draconian new rules were issued and existing rules were enforced much more tightly... [read more]

2018-04-20T22:29:03+00:00August 25th, 2017|

Geldzug: AN INTRODUCTION TO INDICES, ETFS AND BENCHMARKS

3 Jul, 17 SHARE MARKET INDICES The Dow Jones is one of the oldest share market indices and probably the best known. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (to give it its full name) was created in 1896 by Charles Dow and Edward Jones in order to give an aggregate picture of trading on the New York Stock Exchange. The Dow is currently owned and managed by a subsidiary of S&P Global, which also owns and manages the Standard & Poor’s indices. It is based on the share prices of its thirty constituent companies, which are selected by an arcane process. [...]

2018-04-20T22:29:38+00:00July 3rd, 2017|

Geldzug: STOCK MARKETS ALWAYS LIVE IN THE PAST

15 Jun, 17 Way back in 1981, the writer William Gibson remarked “The future is already here – it’s just not very evenly distributed.” Investors tend to think of stock markets as predictive, but they are mostly the result of economic activity in the past. The largest sectors of a stock market are those which have done well in the past. They are made up of companies which have consistently made large profits and raised large amounts of capital. Investors have come to expect that these companies will keep making profits and paying dividends. But most companies don’t survive for [...]

2018-04-20T22:29:53+00:00June 15th, 2017|

Geldzug: THE PERILS OF STOCKMARKET INDICES

23rd May, 2017 Many people choose the passive approach to investing – they put their long-term money into index ETFs or index funds which mirror the standard share market indices, such as the S&P500 in the USA or the S&P/ASX200 in Australia. This is perfectly reasonable. After all, one of the greatest active investors of all time has recommended the passive approach. In 2014 Warren Buffett told his wife that, after he died, she should put 90% of her money into an index ETF which tracked the S&P500, and the other 10% into a high-quality US government bond ETF... [read [...]

2018-04-20T22:30:21+00:00May 26th, 2017|

Geldzug: BUYERS BEWARE OF AUSTRALIAN AND US RETAILERS!

16th May, 2017 The imminent arrival of Amazon in Australia has frightened many investors away from Australian retailers. We think that shareholders in traditional retailers should be very nervous indeed – much like the Australian media sector, the transformation of Australian retailing has barely begun. The US retailing sector is much further down the painful path to re-invention, simply because the US is where most of the successful online retailers originated. US e-commerce sales rose from 10.5% of all sales in 2012 to 15.5% in 2016. As the chart below shows, more stores have closed in the first four months [...]

2017-05-17T13:14:00+00:00May 17th, 2017|

Geldzug: THIS YEAR’S CHINESE TAKEAWAY

24 Mar, 2017 In 2016 Australian coal and iron ore miners enjoyed a jump in commodity prices thanks to capacity closures mandated by the Chinese government. Prices have since pulled back from their peaks, and companies such as BHP and Fortescue have warned that the current level of prices cannot be sustained. We provide an overview of why the Chinese government has been shutting down coal-fired power stations, and explain why commodity prices will fall back again... [read more]

2017-03-27T22:19:32+00:00March 27th, 2017|

Geldzug: IT’S THE YEAR OF THE ROOSTER – NOW DON’T COCK THIS UP, CHINA

31 Jan, 2017 According to the traditional Chinese calendar, on Saturday 28 January the Year of the Monkey gave way to the Year of the Rooster. Last year started badly and ended well. We think that this year will do the opposite. A slowdown in the Chinese economy remains, as ever, the single biggest risk for the Australian economy. We have often stated that Chinese GDP growth is slowing over the long term because the structure of the Chinese economy is changing – services now outweigh manufacturing industry as a percentage of GDP, state sponsored capex is declining, and labour [...]

2017-02-01T23:21:43+00:00February 1st, 2017|
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