Geld Zug

Geldzug: STOCK MARKETS ALWAYS LIVE IN THE PAST

15 Jun, 17 Way back in 1981, the writer William Gibson remarked “The future is already here – it’s just not very evenly distributed.” Investors tend to think of stock markets as predictive, but they are mostly the result of economic activity in the past. The largest sectors of a stock market are those which have done well in the past. They are made up of companies which have consistently made large profits and raised large amounts of capital. Investors have come to expect that these companies will keep making profits and paying dividends. But most companies don’t survive for [...]

2018-04-20T22:29:53+00:00June 15th, 2017|

Geldzug: THE PERILS OF STOCKMARKET INDICES

23rd May, 2017 Many people choose the passive approach to investing – they put their long-term money into index ETFs or index funds which mirror the standard share market indices, such as the S&P500 in the USA or the S&P/ASX200 in Australia. This is perfectly reasonable. After all, one of the greatest active investors of all time has recommended the passive approach. In 2014 Warren Buffett told his wife that, after he died, she should put 90% of her money into an index ETF which tracked the S&P500, and the other 10% into a high-quality US government bond ETF... [read [...]

2018-04-20T22:30:21+00:00May 26th, 2017|

Geldzug: BUYERS BEWARE OF AUSTRALIAN AND US RETAILERS!

16th May, 2017 The imminent arrival of Amazon in Australia has frightened many investors away from Australian retailers. We think that shareholders in traditional retailers should be very nervous indeed – much like the Australian media sector, the transformation of Australian retailing has barely begun. The US retailing sector is much further down the painful path to re-invention, simply because the US is where most of the successful online retailers originated. US e-commerce sales rose from 10.5% of all sales in 2012 to 15.5% in 2016. As the chart below shows, more stores have closed in the first four months [...]

2017-05-17T13:14:00+00:00May 17th, 2017|

Geldzug: THIS YEAR’S CHINESE TAKEAWAY

24 Mar, 2017 In 2016 Australian coal and iron ore miners enjoyed a jump in commodity prices thanks to capacity closures mandated by the Chinese government. Prices have since pulled back from their peaks, and companies such as BHP and Fortescue have warned that the current level of prices cannot be sustained. We provide an overview of why the Chinese government has been shutting down coal-fired power stations, and explain why commodity prices will fall back again... [read more]

2017-03-27T22:19:32+00:00March 27th, 2017|

Geldzug: IT’S THE YEAR OF THE ROOSTER – NOW DON’T COCK THIS UP, CHINA

31 Jan, 2017 According to the traditional Chinese calendar, on Saturday 28 January the Year of the Monkey gave way to the Year of the Rooster. Last year started badly and ended well. We think that this year will do the opposite. A slowdown in the Chinese economy remains, as ever, the single biggest risk for the Australian economy. We have often stated that Chinese GDP growth is slowing over the long term because the structure of the Chinese economy is changing – services now outweigh manufacturing industry as a percentage of GDP, state sponsored capex is declining, and labour [...]

2017-02-01T23:21:43+00:00February 1st, 2017|

Geldzug: LIES, DAMNED LIES, AND CHINESE STATISTICS

23 Jan, 2017 After achieving GDP growth of a scientifically-precise 6.7% in each the first three quarters of 2016, China recorded 6.8% in the December quarter, making 6.7% for the calendar year. This outcome was squarely in the middle of the official target range of 6.5% to 7.0% for GDP growth under the Thirteenth Five Year Plan (covering 2016 to 2020). There is a widely held opinion that Chinese statisticians work more magic than Harry Potter. Back in 2007, the current Premier Li Keqiang remarked that he avoided official statistics and preferred to look at underlying data such as electricity consumption [...]

2017-01-23T17:52:52+00:00January 23rd, 2017|

Geldzug: A PRESIDENT FOR “THE LITTLE GUY”

9 Jan, 2017 One of the many paradoxes of the Trump presidency is that, although he is one of the richest men ever to be elected president, he was elected by “the little guy”.  The opposite of being rich is being poor. Trump was not elected by poor people on average, but by poor areas of the USA. What do we mean by saying this? ...[read more]

2017-01-21T20:50:25+00:00January 21st, 2017|

Geldzug: THE BRAVE NEW WORLD OF TRUMPONOMICS

15 Dec, 2016 Arminius has made money for our investors in November and December by being long assets which have benefitted from the Trump rally, but we bought these assets because we expected them to rise in value regardless of Trump’s policies. Arminius makes investment decisions on the basis of long term data, not by betting on political events... [read more]

2016-12-20T06:42:55+00:00December 20th, 2016|

Geldzug: THE BRAVE NEW WORLD OF TRUMPONOMICS

15 December, 2016 Arminius has made money for our investors in November and December by being long assets which have benefitted from the Trump rally, but we bought these assets because we expected them to rise in value regardless of Trump’s policies. Arminius makes investment decisions on the basis of long term data, not by betting on political events. The most important factor driving markets recently is the “reflation trade”, which is the belief that inflation is rising in the US and Europe. This trade has been painfully obvious to bond investors as evidenced by the rise in the yields [...]

2016-12-20T06:39:06+00:00December 20th, 2016|

Geldzug: OPEC’s CHRISTMAS PRESENT FOR DONALD TRUMP

1 Dec, 2016 Much to our surprise, OPEC has managed to reach agreement on cutting its production from 33.8 million barrels of oil per day (m b/d) to 32.6m b/d. Saudi Arabia will bear the lion’s share of the cuts – 0.5m b/d of the total 1.2m b/d. Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, all of which have large production and small populations, will cut by 0.3m b/d collectively. Iran has agreed to freeze its production at current levels. In addition, Russia and other non-OPEC producers have agreed to cut their production by an additional 0.6m b/d... [read more]

2016-12-04T18:21:46+00:00December 4th, 2016|
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