2016

Geldzug: THE BRAVE NEW WORLD OF TRUMPONOMICS

15 Dec, 2016 Arminius has made money for our investors in November and December by being long assets which have benefitted from the Trump rally, but we bought these assets because we expected them to rise in value regardless of Trump’s policies. Arminius makes investment decisions on the basis of long term data, not by betting on political events... [read more]

2016-12-20T06:42:55+00:00 December 20th, 2016|

Geldzug: THE BRAVE NEW WORLD OF TRUMPONOMICS

15 December, 2016 Arminius has made money for our investors in November and December by being long assets which have benefitted from the Trump rally, but we bought these assets because we expected them to rise in value regardless of Trump’s policies. Arminius makes investment decisions on the basis of long term data, not by betting on political events. The most important factor driving markets recently is the “reflation trade”, which is the belief that inflation is rising in the US and Europe. This trade has been painfully obvious to bond investors as evidenced by the rise in the yields [...]

2016-12-20T06:39:06+00:00 December 20th, 2016|

Geldzug: OPEC’s CHRISTMAS PRESENT FOR DONALD TRUMP

1 Dec, 2016 Much to our surprise, OPEC has managed to reach agreement on cutting its production from 33.8 million barrels of oil per day (m b/d) to 32.6m b/d. Saudi Arabia will bear the lion’s share of the cuts – 0.5m b/d of the total 1.2m b/d. Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, all of which have large production and small populations, will cut by 0.3m b/d collectively. Iran has agreed to freeze its production at current levels. In addition, Russia and other non-OPEC producers have agreed to cut their production by an additional 0.6m b/d... [read more]

2016-12-04T18:21:46+00:00 December 4th, 2016|

Geldzug: ROLL THE DICE, MR PRESIDENT

10 Nov, 2016 Investors have decided that the Trump presidency will be good for US equities and bad for US government bonds. These trends support our view that bonds yields will keep rising as the developed world enters a reflationary phase. We expect a flurry of activity in the first hundred days after Trump’s inauguration on 20 January, because Presidential powers can be used to limit immigration, raise tariffs, cancel environmental regulations, etc. After that, the President will need to get the agreement of Congress to pass legislation on complex issues such as personal tax cuts, infrastructure spending, and higher [...]

2016-11-10T22:24:52+00:00 November 10th, 2016|
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