2015

Geld Zug: “HISTORY DOESN’T REPEAT ITSELF, BUT IT DOES RHYME.”

We were reminded of Mark Twain’s assertion when we read that the Chinese insurance group Anbang (安邦) had bought the Waldorf-Astoria hotel in New York city (Financial Times 06 Oct 2014), making it the most expensive single hotel transaction ever. Anbang has paid USD 1.95 billion to buy the historic 1,413-room hotel, which was built in 1931 and covers an entire city block. The sale price is equivalent to USD 1.4 million per room or 33x the hotel’s historic EBITDA. The seller was the Hilton hotel group (HLT:NYQ), which will retain management rights for the next hundred years. Why did [...]

2016-01-18T20:50:45+00:00 January 18th, 2016|

Geld Zug: WHEN CHINA SNEEZES, AUSTRALIA GETS PNEUMONIA

Recent official statements indicate China’s GDP growth rate in CY14 will be about 7.5%. This figure is way above growth rates in the rest of the world, but nonetheless it marks another step down from China’s peak rate of 14.2% in 2007. The long term factors behind slower growth include: Ageing population: more retirees, less workers. Rising real wages, as regional and sectoral labour shortages enhance employees’ bargaining power. Over-capacity in many industries, as a long term consequence of policies that have favoured investment ahead of consumption. Visible pollution of air, water, soil, food: resistance from consumers and residents increases, [...]

2016-01-18T20:44:44+00:00 January 18th, 2016|

Geld Zug: MAURICE & KING JULIEN OF MADAGASCAR’S ”EMERGING MARKETS”

In the Dreamworks movie “Madagascar 2”, there are many parent-intended lines uttered by the Lemur King Julien. One of his best is when they are leaving the African island of Madagascar on a plane, flown by the Penguins, bound for New York City. King Julien of Madagascar (self proclaimed) wants to know why people from the other end of the plane keep coming into the first class section;   “Maurice, whatever happened to the separation of the classes?”. The new Chief Economist of the IMF, Maurice Obsfeltd, answers this question in a recent report and the findings all lead back to [...]

2015-10-15T19:25:46+00:00 October 15th, 2015|

Geld Zug: THE US NAIRU BASE IN MACRO-NESIA

Don’t economists just love acronyms? The usual suspects incorporate GDP and CPI, which everybody recognises – or should – instantly. Moving up the economists’ food chain, we can find other delectables such as PCE, RFR & ERP. Once you enter the realm of the macro economists, the populist pinnacle (because what this class of economists talk about actually sometimes is of relevance to the man on the street), we are blessed with exposure to a whole new universe. The one that currently appears in the media with increasing frequency, for very good reason so the Fed tells us, is one [...]

2015-07-31T09:46:51+00:00 July 31st, 2015|
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