hfoelsing

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So far hfoelsing has created 75 blog entries.

Geldzug: BUYERS BEWARE OF AUSTRALIAN AND US RETAILERS!

16th May, 2017 The imminent arrival of Amazon in Australia has frightened many investors away from Australian retailers. We think that shareholders in traditional retailers should be very nervous indeed – much like the Australian media sector, the transformation of Australian retailing has barely begun. The US retailing sector is much further down the painful path to re-invention, simply because the US is where most of the successful online retailers originated. US e-commerce sales rose from 10.5% of all sales in 2012 to 15.5% in 2016. As the chart below shows, more stores have closed in the first four months [...]

2017-05-17T13:14:00+00:00 May 17th, 2017|

Geldzug: THIS YEAR’S CHINESE TAKEAWAY

24 Mar, 2017 In 2016 Australian coal and iron ore miners enjoyed a jump in commodity prices thanks to capacity closures mandated by the Chinese government. Prices have since pulled back from their peaks, and companies such as BHP and Fortescue have warned that the current level of prices cannot be sustained. We provide an overview of why the Chinese government has been shutting down coal-fired power stations, and explain why commodity prices will fall back again... [read more]

2017-03-27T22:19:32+00:00 March 27th, 2017|

Geldzug: IT’S THE YEAR OF THE ROOSTER – NOW DON’T COCK THIS UP, CHINA

31 Jan, 2017 According to the traditional Chinese calendar, on Saturday 28 January the Year of the Monkey gave way to the Year of the Rooster. Last year started badly and ended well. We think that this year will do the opposite. A slowdown in the Chinese economy remains, as ever, the single biggest risk for the Australian economy. We have often stated that Chinese GDP growth is slowing over the long term because the structure of the Chinese economy is changing – services now outweigh manufacturing industry as a percentage of GDP, state sponsored capex is declining, and labour [...]

2017-02-01T23:21:43+00:00 February 1st, 2017|
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