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So far Arminius has created 53 blog entries.

Geldzug: WARREN BUFFETT IS NOT BUYING RIGHT NOW

5 May 2020 Warren Buffett provided a couple of surprises at Saturday’s annual meeting of Berkshire Hathaway. First, he admitted that he had made a mistake in owning airline shares, because the industry was unlikely to bounce back quickly, so he sold out of all four big US airlines in April... [read more]

2020-05-04T16:47:11+00:00May 4th, 2020|

Geldzug: CHINA IS RECOVERING

1 May 2020 China is recovering, not only from COVID-19, but also from the GDP collapse caused by its lockdown. We know this because the central government has begun to relax several key restrictions on travel and spending. First, China’s children are being allowed to go back to school. All provinces are phasing in the resumption of regular classes over the next six weeks. In the land of the one-child policy, the return to school is psychologically very important. Even though COVID-19 very rarely kills young people, no Chinese government wants to be responsible for any child mortality. Remember the [...]

2020-05-01T20:26:08+00:00May 1st, 2020|

Geldzug: OKLAHOMA – WHERE OIL FUTURES GO TO DIE

21 April 2020 The day oil died was Monday the 20th of April 2020 - for the first time in history the price of a novated futures contract CL00 for Crude Oil WTI went negative (“CLK20” ticker on the CME for May 2020). It got buried -$37.63 below ground, final resting place Cushing, Oklahoma. Speculators holding those futures and retail investors holding the ETF “USO” will have, in market parlance, been “carted out” on the day. Whilst the next roll month is still trading in positive territory (at time of writing!) the issues that caused the May contract to hit [...]

2020-05-01T20:25:50+00:00April 22nd, 2020|

Geldzug: CHINA STOPPED COVID-19 BY STOPPING ITS ECONOMY… …BUT CAN IT RESTART ITS ECONOMY WITHOUT RESTARTING COVID-19?

23 March 2020 Chinese authorities have told the world that COVID-19 has been contained inside China. Rules about isolation are being loosened – even in Wuhan – as the number of new cases diminishes. The number of cases outside the core areas around Wuhan remain small, because the policies of quarantines and draconian travel restrictions have succeeded in preventing new cases in the rest of China. Big cities like Shanghai and Hong Kong have set excellent examples of how to handle a pandemic, because their leaders were smart enough to listen to the experts and to act decisively very early [...]

2020-03-24T11:56:37+00:00March 24th, 2020|

AUSTRALIAN MARKETS THE FEBRUARY 2020 REPORTING SEASON

25 March 2020 Twice a year we summarise the half-year and full-year results of the companies in the ALCE portfolio. The impact of the COVID-19 epidemic has overshadowed the results which were released in February 2020, because recessions are all but inevitable in Australia, the US, and Europe. For the companies reporting below, the impact of COVID-19 will not force radical changes in their business models; in other sectors such as airlines, hotels, cruise lines, and oil and gas exploration and production, many companies will not survive. For the companies in the ALCE portfolio, it is their operational performance which [...]

2020-03-24T11:39:08+00:00March 24th, 2020|

Arminius Capital hedge fund “ALPS” generates positive Chinese coronavirus returns

*LATEST* Arminius Capital hedge fund “ALPS” generates positive Chinese coronavirus returns The Arminius Capital ALPS Fund returned +1.11% for February 2020, building on its +1.38% of January. All major markets fell in February 2020: S&P500 -8.41%, Eurostoxx 600 -8.54%, NIKKEI -8.89%. To the end of February, the Arminius Capital ALPS Fund has returned +2.51% YTD 2020. (YTD 2020: S&P500 -8.56%, Eurostoxx 600 -9.66%, NIKKEI -10.63%). Although we are only 12 days into March, most global markets have suffered terribly, ending the 11 year bull market in equities. Both energy commodities and global equities have commenced their march into a bear [...]

2020-03-13T08:06:41+00:00March 13th, 2020|

Global equity futures today, across the last 5 years…

Global equity futures today, across the last 5 years... Japan: up 1% Australia: negative Europe: very negative US: up 35% 2020 and still cleaning up 2008's mess. "We're from the central bank and we're here to help". (Base:100) pic.twitter.com/A5vfhQBUHl — Arminius Capital (@ArminiusCapital) March 11, 2020  

2020-03-11T14:59:45+00:00March 11th, 2020|

Geldzug: BANKS FY2019 – THE PAIN GOES ON AND ON

22 September 2019 The banking sector has underperformed the Australian market since 2015, and the results for the year to 30 September 2019 suggests that another year or two of underperformance is still to come. The latest results were dismal. Cash profits fell by 7.8% ($2.9bn) year-on-year. Revenue growth was minimal to negative as the big banks lost market share to their newer and more agile competitors. Banks’ cost to income ratio rose by 313 basis points on average, ranging between +200bp and +540bp. Net interest margins (the spread between banks’ lending rates and their cost of funds) narrowed for [...]

2019-11-22T14:54:21+00:00November 22nd, 2019|
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