Arminius

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So far Arminius has created 50 blog entries.

Geldzug: CHINA STOPPED COVID-19 BY STOPPING ITS ECONOMY… …BUT CAN IT RESTART ITS ECONOMY WITHOUT RESTARTING COVID-19?

23 March 2020 Chinese authorities have told the world that COVID-19 has been contained inside China. Rules about isolation are being loosened – even in Wuhan – as the number of new cases diminishes. The number of cases outside the core areas around Wuhan remain small, because the policies of quarantines and draconian travel restrictions have succeeded in preventing new cases in the rest of China. Big cities like Shanghai and Hong Kong have set excellent examples of how to handle a pandemic, because their leaders were smart enough to listen to the experts and to act decisively very early [...]

2020-03-24T11:56:37+00:00March 24th, 2020|

AUSTRALIAN MARKETS THE FEBRUARY 2020 REPORTING SEASON

25 March 2020 Twice a year we summarise the half-year and full-year results of the companies in the ALCE portfolio. The impact of the COVID-19 epidemic has overshadowed the results which were released in February 2020, because recessions are all but inevitable in Australia, the US, and Europe. For the companies reporting below, the impact of COVID-19 will not force radical changes in their business models; in other sectors such as airlines, hotels, cruise lines, and oil and gas exploration and production, many companies will not survive. For the companies in the ALCE portfolio, it is their operational performance which [...]

2020-03-24T11:39:08+00:00March 24th, 2020|

Arminius Capital hedge fund “ALPS” generates positive Chinese coronavirus returns

*LATEST* Arminius Capital hedge fund “ALPS” generates positive Chinese coronavirus returns The Arminius Capital ALPS Fund returned +1.11% for February 2020, building on its +1.38% of January. All major markets fell in February 2020: S&P500 -8.41%, Eurostoxx 600 -8.54%, NIKKEI -8.89%. To the end of February, the Arminius Capital ALPS Fund has returned +2.51% YTD 2020. (YTD 2020: S&P500 -8.56%, Eurostoxx 600 -9.66%, NIKKEI -10.63%). Although we are only 12 days into March, most global markets have suffered terribly, ending the 11 year bull market in equities. Both energy commodities and global equities have commenced their march into a bear [...]

2020-03-13T08:06:41+00:00March 13th, 2020|

Global equity futures today, across the last 5 years…

Global equity futures today, across the last 5 years... Japan: up 1% Australia: negative Europe: very negative US: up 35% 2020 and still cleaning up 2008's mess. "We're from the central bank and we're here to help". (Base:100) pic.twitter.com/A5vfhQBUHl — Arminius Capital (@ArminiusCapital) March 11, 2020  

2020-03-11T14:59:45+00:00March 11th, 2020|

Geldzug: BANKS FY2019 – THE PAIN GOES ON AND ON

22 September 2019 The banking sector has underperformed the Australian market since 2015, and the results for the year to 30 September 2019 suggests that another year or two of underperformance is still to come. The latest results were dismal. Cash profits fell by 7.8% ($2.9bn) year-on-year. Revenue growth was minimal to negative as the big banks lost market share to their newer and more agile competitors. Banks’ cost to income ratio rose by 313 basis points on average, ranging between +200bp and +540bp. Net interest margins (the spread between banks’ lending rates and their cost of funds) narrowed for [...]

2019-11-22T14:54:21+00:00November 22nd, 2019|

Geldzug: BREXIT FROM A EUROPEAN VIEWPOINT

23 November 2019 In the wake of the GFC, and again after the June 2016 Brexit referendum, many fund managers left the City of London for European shores, in search of lower tax rates and less regulation, not to mention the fear that Brexit would cut them off from their clients’ money. But most of the English fund managers who flocked to Switzerland have long since departed. The fund managers were unable to adapt to Swiss cultural norms, or they deemed Switzerland too “boring”, or for many other non-substantive reasons in a long litany of typical English whinges. The “boring” [...]

2019-11-22T14:31:26+00:00November 22nd, 2019|

Geldzug: BANK RUNS IN CHINA

5th November 2019 In February this year, we outlined the risks of a financial crisis in China. (Published as one of our Geld Zug commentary articles: http://arminiuscapital.com.au/preparing-for-the-china-crisis/). One of the triggers for a financial crisis was a rash of problems among China’s small banks. This trigger may be taking shape right now. Another small bank suffered a run last week, making it the fourth small bank to get into trouble since May... [read more]

2019-11-04T15:44:40+00:00November 4th, 2019|

Geldzug: RECESSION O’CLOCK, AUSTRALIA?

4th October 2019 The biggest drivers of GDP growth in Australia are “houses and holes”, i.e. residential construction and resource exports. Residential construction is driven by factors internal to the Australian economy, whereas resource exports depend on the growth of the major global economies, particularly China. House prices and housing starts have been falling since early 2018, but there are recent signs that they are bottoming out. Optimists believe that the Reserve Bank’s two interest rate cuts plus changes in the banks’ prudential requirements will stimulate demand, prompting a recovery in 2020. We are more pessimistic: although house prices are [...]

2019-10-10T12:20:38+00:00October 10th, 2019|
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