Arminius

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So far Arminius has created 34 blog entries.

Geldzug: ECONOMIC GROWTH AND EQUITY MARKETS

19 June 2019 It is natural to assume that a country’s share market performance is driven by its economic performance, and therefore that a country with high GDP growth will generate high equity returns. Unfortunately, completely the opposite is true. For most countries over most periods, equity returns are negatively correlated with economic growth. How could this happen? We have known for four decades that share markets are much more volatile than they ought to be if their price movements were driven by changes in economic and business fundamentals alone. Robert Shiller pointed out in 1981 that, based on price [...]

2019-06-24T23:28:06+00:00June 19th, 2019|

Geldzug: BIPARTISANSHIP – AN ALBATROSS FOR CONGRESS

21 May 2019 As we watch the US and China heading enthusiastically into a full-scale trade war, it is worth taking a step back from President Trump’s daily squabbles via the Twittersphere with the rest of Planet Earth, and focusing on the policy areas where the Republicans and the Democrats do already agree. Infrastructure is one of the obvious areas. Both parties agree that the USA needs to spend more on maintaining its existing roads, bridges, canals, tunnels, pipelines, etc., as well as building new ones. The American Society of Civil Engineers produces a four-yearly report card on the nation’s [...]

2019-05-22T00:51:23+00:00May 22nd, 2019|

Geldzug: WARNING SIGNS IN THE US – GELD ZUG

12 May 2019 Since the GFC, the world’s central banks have got into the habit of publishing regular Financial Stability Reports (FSR). These documents are intended to function as an early warning system, by monitoring financial markets in order to identify risks as they appear and grow, so that the regulators can take action before the crisis actually occurs – unlike in the GFC. The US Federal Reserve publishes its FSR twice a year, and many investors read each FSR not only to assess the current risk level but also get see what the Fed might do next. The May [...]

2019-05-10T02:19:38+00:00May 10th, 2019|

Geldzug: PREPARING FOR THE CHINA CRISIS

22 February 2019 After a decade of pointing out that China was not heading for a financial crisis, we have changed our minds. Recent trends suggest that problems are building in China’s corporate bonds, small banks, and consumer loans. We think that a crisis is likely in the next two years... [read more]

2019-03-08T01:35:11+00:00February 28th, 2019|

Geldzug: YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED

21 November 2018 Here is a list of fund managers and financial regulators: Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, which manages USD$160 billion Paul Tudor Jones, successful hedge fund manager since 1980 The International Monetary Fund, which recently pointed out global debt has now reached 225% of GDP, beating the 2009 record of 213% Jean-Claude Trichet, head of the European Central Bank from 2003 to 2011 The Bank of International Settlements, which did warn the US Federal Reserve about the impending GFC Janet Yellen, former Chair of the US Federal Reserve. What do they have in common? All of them [...]

2018-11-21T11:25:32+00:00November 21st, 2018|

Geldzug: FROM WEAK OWNERS TO STRONG OWNERS – ASSETS IN A BEAR MARKET

31 October 2018 Through 2018, many of our investors may well have become bored listening to our endless repetitions of the warning that a market correction was “just around the corner”. In October, the correction arrived in all major markets: the US S&P500 price index has fallen by -8.8% so far this month, the Australian S&P/ASX200 by -8.7%, the Japanese Nikkei 225 by -11.3%, and the European Stoxx 600 by -8.2%. (The Chinese Shenzhen A dropped -10.3%, but it has been falling all year and is now down by -31.9% since January.) By the third week in October, all major [...]

2018-10-29T23:00:49+00:00October 29th, 2018|

Geldzug: WHEN THE BEAR TRIPS, HOW HARD DOES IT FALL?

31 October 2018 Investors will remember that we have been nagging them about the coming correction. Now that it’s here, the big question is how bad will it be. History is a good guide because, as Warren Buffett has pointed out, Mr Market keeps making the same mistakes, swinging from over-optimism to extreme pessimism and back again. The main driver of the US share market since the GFC has been the technology sector, headed by stocks such as Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Google (aka Alphabet)... [read more]

2018-10-29T22:45:31+00:00October 29th, 2018|

Geldzug: WELCOME TO THE YEAR OF THE PIG… AND AFRICAN PIG FEVER

25 October 2018 2019 is the Year of the Pig. In the Chinese zodiac, the pig is regarded as peaceful and generous, but the Chinese government already has a serious problem with pigs. In addition to fighting a trade war and trying to deflate a credit bubble, it now has to deal with an outbreak of African Swine Fever. Cases of African Swine Fever (‘ASF’) were reported in China’s north-east in early August, and authorities responded by disinfecting farms, imposing quarantines, culling over 200,000 infected pigs, and restricting long-distance transport of all pigs. Their measures have been unsuccessful... [read more]

2018-10-30T22:34:58+00:00October 25th, 2018|

Geldzug: THE NEXT BEAR MARKET HAS JUST BEGUN

10 October 2018 For the last six months we have been warning our investors that the end was nigh for the US bull market which has appreciated by a colossal +423% for the S&P500 TR index from 6 March 2009 to 21 September 2018. Arminius Capital ALPS fund investors have benefitted from this since the fund’s inception in 2014, until we became very concerned at the end of the first quarter 2018 and began to materially add to (increasingly expensive) hedges. The recent rises in US 10 year bond yields and falls in global equities have signalled that the long [...]

2018-10-28T23:54:37+00:00October 10th, 2018|
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