Monthly Archives: January 2015

Geld Zug: THE PURPOSE OF ECONOMIC FORECASTING IS TO MAKE ASTROLOGERS LOOK GOOD

THE PURPOSE OF ECONOMIC FORECASTING IS TO MAKE ASTROLOGERS LOOK GOOD 2014 was a year that confounded forecasters. We admit our own mistakes first: we were worried about a market correction of 10%-plus, and it just didn’t happen. As a result our modest investment in derivative protection turned out to be unnecessary, but my equity fund has nonetheless recorded a return of more than 14% for CY2014, significantly above the S&P/ASX200 accumulation return of 5.68%. The record of economic forecasters demonstrates very clearly why we don’t use economic forecasts as inputs. The USA is the world’s largest economy: its 2013 [...]

2015-01-12T09:56:27+00:00 January 12th, 2015|